Data Download
Today, we refreshed our operator-by-operator capex budget data with a focus on incorporating the formal 2026 capex budgets of more than 40 publicly traded Lower 48 E&Ps. NOTE: these budgets were set BEFORE the $30 spike in WTI on the war – so… we’ll see if these get a lift on the next round of conference calls. Download the new Excel here to see company by company and total spending trends. Read on for some important observations from our latest predictive data collection.
7 Key Takeaways From PRE-WAR Public E&P Budgets
- Tight oil E&P capex was set to decline -7% y/y
- Shale gas E&P budgets +14% y/y for 2026 (but there is some recent Public/Private M&A adding noise here, plus more than half the increase from just 2 E&Ps, one of whom has an M&A driven increase). Public, gas-focused E&P capex budgets are more nuanced than their oil counterparts this year. They are trending up Y/Y, but the organic capital and development intensity on pre-existing assets is flatter than the headline number suggests.)
- Overall Lower 48 unconventional spend -4% y/y
- Despite the downspend y/y, oil E&Ps are generally aiming to maintain production about flat Y/Y, and most nat gas E&Ps are also near maintenance mode organically, with one big exception
- No seasonal rebound for 1Q26E spend this year, as it is projected -1% q/q in L48 (gas increase partially offsets bigger downtick in oil plays)
- Fairly level-loaded programs were budgeted this year, with 51% of capex falling in 1H
- The larger oil E&Ps seem to be on pace for a steadier q/q spending progression this year, but multiple smaller focused producers are front-loading budgets in 1H26 (some examples include Magnolia peaking in 1Q, Matador 55-60% in 1H, and Murphy guiding a 70% weighted to 1H)
For more company-specific trends and data, grab the newest capex data in Excel here.