Late Stage Pipeline Update – up again, but growth slowing (only ~10 GWac contracts signed last 3 months vs 60 GWac in 2023)
Broadly speaking, the utility scale solar pipeline continued to grow in Q1’24, hitting 112 GWac of projects that are considered to be in late stage development.
SOLARSAT™: February new construction bounce
Although more than a few companies continue to stress widespread delays, we have not yet seen it in real-time construction data.
Permits slow start to the year (despite anecdotes of better sales)
Although some companies are seeing sales improve, residential solar permits remain dismal.
SOLARSAT™: Modest start to 2024
In this note we summarize U.S. utility solar activity from January
U.S. Manufacturing Study (production is ramping); +20 GWdc realistic by June 50-60 GWdc by 2025
In this study we have updated our U.S. solar module manufacturing data, focusing on facilities that are progressing through key milestones such as permit approval, facility construction, equipment installation, hiring, and final production.
Final 2023 interconnections (17.6 GWac – up 60% y/y); 2024 will surge again
This week, the EIA released final December and 2023 interconnection data, highlighting 5.6 GWac turned on in December alone.
Hard landing in December
For 2023A in total, permits declined by 3% as a huge start to the year was offset by the dismal second half.
SOLARSAT™: Activity still chugging along nicely
Generally speaking, activity has continued to chug along in recent months despite fears from some public companies that developers are delaying work (ie ARRY, MTZ).
2024 Outlook – Interconnections surge again (50% above Woodmac estimates); New construction +15-20%
In this note, we are updating our utility solar model (LS-1), highlighting forecasts for interconnections, new construction, trackers, and panel installations.
4Q Pipeline Update (still growing after another 11 GWac originations); NXT/PWR/SOLV/PRIM most leverage
In this note, we are updating our list of of U.S. utility scale solar projects that are in the late stage development pipeline (defined as regulatory hurdles cleared such as environmental siting, right-of-way clearance, interconnection agreement).