- This Week. Recovering from last week’s weather, residential solar permits rebounded sharply, improving 20% w/w. Texas was the biggest gainer this week, with double the number of permits compared to the previous week and the highest weekly count since October.
- February / March. For February, permits landed up ~15% compared to January and year ago levels. At this week’s run rate, March would be up ~3% compared to February and up 20% compared to year ago levels.
- Q1’21. This quarter, permits are tracking 13% better than a year ago and down 20% compared to Q4’20 (characteristic of seasonal permit trends). Going forward, March / April / May are typically very strong permit & installation months, which is beginning to be reflected in the data starting this week. To reach 25-35% installation growth in 2021, permit activity will need to continue averaging +1-3% per week over the few months.
- Next Quarter. Looking forward to Q2’21, using last weeks run rate would imply an 8% q/q sequential increase and 40% better than year ago levels.
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