Weekly Observations
- This Week. Permits were roughly flat following a big jump in the previous week. Texas was the strongest for the second straight week following the winter freeze. El Paso and Austin have been the drivers.
- March. For March, permits are tracking up 5% compared to February and up 17% compared to year ago levels.
- Q1’21. This quarter, permits are tracking 10% better than a year ago and down 20% compared to Q4’20 (characteristic of seasonal permit trends). Going forward, March / April / May are typically very strong permit & installation months. To reach 25-35% installation growth in 2021 (consensus expectations), permit activity needs to grow ~10% per month through June.
- Next Quarter. Looking forward to Q2’21, using this week’s run rate would imply an 8% q/q sequential increase and 40% better than year ago levels.
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