Weekly Observations
- This Week. Permits were roughly flat for the third week in a row following the big step up in early March. California was the main needle mover higher as permit activity has picked up significantly following a slow start to the year. It is notable that this is the week a year ago that solar permits started to fall because of the pandemic, making the current year comparison very favorable (this week was up 30% compared to last year)
- March. For March, permits are tracking up 8% compared to February and up 20% compared to year ago levels.
- Q1’21. This quarter, permits are tracking 10% better than a year ago and down 20% compared to Q4’20 (characteristic of seasonal permit trends). Going forward, March / April / May are typically very strong permit & installation months. To reach 25-35% installation growth in 2021 (consensus expectations), permit activity needs to grow ~10% per month through June.
- Next Quarter. Looking forward, using this week’s run rate would imply that Q2’21 increases by 9% sequentially and would be 40% better than year ago levels.
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