March imports continue to be strong; Cambodia (BYD, New East) big growth; Avoid EIA Monthly Shipments Report (it is wrong)
India, South Korea, and Cambodia imports have been particularly notable, collectively up 400% compared to a year ago.
Publishing new solar construction data (LS-1, LS-2)
For 2023E, we are still expecting around 20 GWac to be interconnected, almost double that of 2022.
Updating resi-solar model for California permit surge (Q1 permits +50% y/y)
Since late January, our data is showing a surge (as expected) in California residential solar permits
SOLARSAT™: Utility solar activity slow through February (probably seasonal, but worth watching)
Utility scale solar construction was pretty uneventful through February, with firstDIRT (new construction) and panel installations both down from January and lower than the Q4’2022 average.
Feb solar module imports remain firm
Despite noise around detentions, February PV module imports have remained firm.
California February permits off the chart
California residential solar permits jumped by 25% sequentially in February and are now up 40% y/y (by far the largest month ever reported – which usually happens in August / September).
Takeaways from Intersolar Conference; U.S. module manufacturing could be 40 GW+; NEM surge underway
We now think that boom could be in the range of 40 GWdc by 2025E, much higher than the 25-30 GWdc that has been announced / in the public domain and only 8 GWdc that exists now.
Publishing BESS project detail by integrator (FLNC, Sungrow, CSI, Powin etc)
we are anticipating the U.S. large scale BESS installations to grow to ~15-20 GW/year by 2025, up from only ~5 GW that was installed in 2022 and 9 GW total installed in the U.S. today.
January import data echos solarSAT views (big jump in module supply)
Recent surge in module availability is putting the U.S. back on track to deliver record solar generation this year
California improved in January (after slow December) – possibly NEM pull forward; Rest of country continues to slow
With California holding up in January, we think Q1’23E could have a shot of only being down single digits sequentially and up ~10% compared to Q1’22.