SOLARSAT™: Big start to 2023 (panels installed jump another 25%); More solar likely in H1’23E than 2022 total; New construction still hibernating
surprising jump in panel deliveries over the last 30 days, with January installations 25% higher than the previous record in mid-2021.
Takeaways from EIA data this week (2.5 GW online – missing 10GW under construction); Queues up 30% since IRA; NextEra & Nextracker data
With December published, the final tally for U.S. utility solar turned online in 2022 was roughly 11 GWac, down ~20% from 2021.
Dec permits firm (+18% y/y)…but signs of weakness; California now flat (after red hot 2022)
December permit data continues to hold a good pace, up 18% compared to 2021.
Nextracker (NXT) Data Trends
Using our satellite imagery, we counted over 21 GWac of utility scale projects that started construction last year, up over 20% from the prior year.
Dec / Jan module imports up 65% y/y; LONGi imports still dismal
Solar module imports for the month of December, as aggregated by Lium, have increased 65% as compared to 2021
SOLARSAT™: Another big month for panel installations; NextEra primary driver; New construction at seasonal low
On the new construction side (leading indicator to tracker installs), activity has been slower than usual with only ~800 MWac per month started in Nov / Dec.
Disappointing 2022 (only 5GW installed vs 7-9GW forecast)… but project pipeline surges again
Disappointing near term installations (driven by supply chain / equipment / labor shortages), with only 5 GW installed in 2022 compared our original forecast of 7-9 GW.
SOLARSAT™: November new construction starts drop sharply (after six very strong months); Panel installations on uptrend
Q4 construction starts are now likely to land in the range of 2.9-3.5 GWac, down substantially from both Q3 and Q2.
November permits down 10% m/m (seasonal decline); Still tracking up >20% y/y
Q4 residential solar permits are on track to decline by 5-10% sequentially and up 20-25% y/y.
Module import data jumps 17% Oct / Nov
Monthly module imports have increased to almost 3 GWdc in October and November, up 17% from the 3Q average