Expected rebound NOT materializing; May permits still down 35% y/y (Cali down 60%)
The much anticipated rebound in residential solar activity is not yet happening, according to our recent permit data.
SOLARSAT™: Another 18 big projects (3 GWac) kicked off in May; Trackers on pace for flattish y/y; SEIA estimates way too low
Despite SEIA claims of a slowdown, persistent delay anecdotes, and tariff fears, actual new solar construction has remained firm.
Momentum continues; Record new construction starts; FLNC+TSLA share gains
In this note we are updating our quarterly large scale battery storage (BESS) data.
Pipeline update – new approvals down again; Late stage queue flat at 112 GWac
In this note, we are updating our utility solar database and pipeline.
SOLARSAT™: New construction – no problem; Nextera overweight; Trackers flat; Shoals losing share
U.S. utility-scale solar market is having no problem starting projects.
AD/CVD pockets of risk, but mostly exaggerated
In this note, we summarize our recent data collected surrounding U.S. solar module imports and solar demand as it relates to AD/CVD risk.
Heads up on 20% decline for Q1 installations (and muted bounce for Q2)
While leading edge indicators have picked up (or at least hit bottom), installations have not and continue to move significantly lower.
Lowering 2024E tracker forecast (now +0-5%); New construction starts on schedule
After seeing the pace of 1Q starts, collecting new permits / interconnections agreements, and reassessing our developer forecast, we are maintaining our new construction forecast at 15-20% in 2024E.
SOLARSAT™: Seasonal uptick continues w/ March new construction @ 2.4 GWac (+15% y/y); Mostly Nextera, others flat; Tracker installations disappoint
Generally speaking, the seasonal uptick is happening with March noticeably higher for both new construction starts and tracker installations.
March permits up (modestly)…installations still have leg down
In this note, we have seen enough permit data to make a call on on March while also updating our full year residential solar permit and installations forecasts (RS-3).