Model update…2024 trackers DOWN 5-10% (new construction +15%); 2025E signs of +10-20%
In this note, we are updating our 2024/2025 Utility Scale Solar Model (LS-1) after putting in actuals through September and refreshing our project / developer level forecast.
SOLARSAT™: September new starts firm again (2.6 GWac); Q3 lands +12% y/y; Tracker installs soft
After a record August, September new construction has remained firm. Specifically, 2.6 GWac of new projects kicked off construction during September, down from almost 4 GWac last month, but still tracking well ahead of last year.
Refreshing data sheets to reflect latest construction starts (LS-2, PLUS-201); 2025E tracker outlook improving
In this note, we are updating our LS-2 and PLUS-201 files to reflect the latest satellite and company data.
SOLARSAT™: Huge August for new construction starts (3Q tracking +20% y/y)
After a disappointing July, new construction starts have seen a huge bounce in August. In fact, almost 4 GWac of projects kicked off during August, the best month of activity for U.S. utility solar so far. For 2024E full year, new construction starts are very much on track to hit our original projection of 15-20% y/y. Meanwhile, tracker demand has not yet caught up to new construction starts and remains on track for flat 2024E.
Deeper Dive To Understand Project Delays
As a broad takeaway, delays in project developments are slightly more elevated now, but NOT significantly different than other historical periods.
Pipeline update (approvals get support after 3 down qtrs); TX strong as ever; CAISO/PJM terrible
In this update, we have processed the new interconnection approvals that have been executed over the last three months.
SOLARSAT™: July takes a breather (down 15% from Q2 average)
After a big June and Q2, new utility solar construction took a breather in July posting only ~2.5 GWac compared to ~3 GWac per month since April.
Updating Q2 model / database (2024E unchanged); Tracker backlog @ 9 GWac; Texas grid 10% solar this summer
In this note, we are updating our utility solar database and pipeline.
SOLARSAT™: Record Q2 new construction starts (9.3 GWac); Top 30 finally ramping; Tracker installs flat y/y
During the month, another 16 projects have kicked off, shrugging off potential AD/CVD tariffs and contrary to the solar construction delay narrative.
SOLARSAT™: Another 18 big projects (3 GWac) kicked off in May; Trackers on pace for flattish y/y; SEIA estimates way too low
Despite SEIA claims of a slowdown, persistent delay anecdotes, and tariff fears, actual new solar construction has remained firm.