4Q Pipeline Update (still growing after another 11 GWac originations); NXT/PWR/SOLV/PRIM most leverage
In this note, we are updating our list of of U.S. utility scale solar projects that are in the late stage development pipeline (defined as regulatory hurdles cleared such as environmental siting, right-of-way clearance, interconnection agreement).
SOLARSAT™: November new construction slowing for the winter
During November we counted roughly 1.7 GWac of projects that kicked off during the month.
SOLARSAT™: October new construction still firm (up >20% y/y)
One of the constants we have found in utility scale solar development is that ALL projects experience delays
SOLARSAT™: If developers are going to slow down, they haven’t yet (September new construction up 25% y/y)
More than 2 GWac of projects were started in September, down from 3 GWac in June / July, but still up 25% from a year ago.
SOLARSAT™: Utility Solar full steam ahead; Q3 tracking +20% y/y; Panel installs up 2x; ARRY slow
Assuming the industry continues to click, the U.S. will soon be installing 30-40 GWac (40-50 GWdc) of utility solar per year
SOLARSAT™: July hitting on all cylinders
Broadly speaking, activity across the board was robust in July, particularly for new construction which was almost double last year.
SOLARSAT™: June BIG month for new construction starts
roughly 2.5 GWac (30 GW annually) of new solar was started in June, suggesting that tracker demand can continue to grow despite mediocre new construction in early 2023
SOLARSAT™: May construction picking up speed, but panel installations still falling behind
While new construction starts and tracker activity is progressing as expected in Q2, the conversion to panel installation is concerning.
SOLARSAT™: Great April for new construction starts; Panel flows disappointing
After a relatively slow winter, April new construction starts have picked back up to ~25 GWac annually.
SOLARSAT™: March new construction improves sharply (after slow winter)
In total, we identified around 1.6 GWac of new projects kicked off during the month