NEM 3 (Week 0) – Five part weekly series tracking the decline in California rooftop permits (SPWR, RUN, ENPH)
Over the last 10 weeks, California permit activity has been a moonshot as homeowners rushed to file paperwork before the NEM 3.0 April 14 deadline.
SOLARSAT™: March new construction improves sharply (after slow winter)
In total, we identified around 1.6 GWac of new projects kicked off during the month
Takeaways from Austin RE+ Conference
After a strong Q1, leading edge anecdotes at the Austin RE+ conference suggest that new inbounds are coming to a halt in California.
March imports continue to be strong; Cambodia (BYD, New East) big growth; Avoid EIA Monthly Shipments Report (it is wrong)
India, South Korea, and Cambodia imports have been particularly notable, collectively up 400% compared to a year ago.
Publishing new solar construction data (LS-1, LS-2)
For 2023E, we are still expecting around 20 GWac to be interconnected, almost double that of 2022.
Updating resi-solar model for California permit surge (Q1 permits +50% y/y)
Since late January, our data is showing a surge (as expected) in California residential solar permits
SOLARSAT™: Utility solar activity slow through February (probably seasonal, but worth watching)
Utility scale solar construction was pretty uneventful through February, with firstDIRT (new construction) and panel installations both down from January and lower than the Q4’2022 average.
Feb solar module imports remain firm
Despite noise around detentions, February PV module imports have remained firm.
California February permits off the chart
California residential solar permits jumped by 25% sequentially in February and are now up 40% y/y (by far the largest month ever reported – which usually happens in August / September).
Takeaways from Intersolar Conference; U.S. module manufacturing could be 40 GW+; NEM surge underway
We now think that boom could be in the range of 40 GWdc by 2025E, much higher than the 25-30 GWdc that has been announced / in the public domain and only 8 GWdc that exists now.
