New generation, capacity, utilization data; NXT scores better than ARRY; FSLR on par
Generally speaking, solar generation has been disappointing in H1’23, increasing by a modest 7% (lagging the 20% growth in solar capacity over the same period).
Updating Q2 data and full year estimates
With a summer ramp looking much more subdued than last year, we are anticipating H2’23E permits to decline 10-15% from H2’22.
Model update – H1 Firm, H2 Risks
Although we are still waiting on final June data, utility scale construction metrics have generally been mixed relative to our original expectations for H1’23.
May still clinging to up y/y (June will not be)
According to our data, May U.S. residential permits declined 7% from April but still clinging to up 15% compared to last year.
SOLARSAT™: May construction picking up speed, but panel installations still falling behind
While new construction starts and tracker activity is progressing as expected in Q2, the conversion to panel installation is concerning.
Import flows still good, but decelerating
The U.S. imported roughly double the volume of solar modules in April and early May compared to a year ago.
NEM 3 (Week 4) – Still holding up better than expected
Since April 14, permit activity in cities switching to California NEM 3.0 have declined by roughly 35% peak-to-trough.
NEM 3 (Week 3) – Searching for bottom
For the week ended May 5th, California residential solar permits declined by another 13% and are now tracking down more than ~30% since the onset of NEM 3.0.
SOLARSAT™: Great April for new construction starts; Panel flows disappointing
After a relatively slow winter, April new construction starts have picked back up to ~25 GWac annually.
NEM 3 (Week 2) – Steady decline but not a free fall
While the full force of NEM 3.0 has yet to hit local data, the less dramatic decline so far suggests installations could be better than expected over the next 3-9 months.
