4Q Pipeline Update (still growing after another 11 GWac originations); NXT/PWR/SOLV/PRIM most leverage
In this note, we are updating our list of of U.S. utility scale solar projects that are in the late stage development pipeline (defined as regulatory hurdles cleared such as environmental siting, right-of-way clearance, interconnection agreement).
SOLARSAT™: November new construction slowing for the winter
During November we counted roughly 1.7 GWac of projects that kicked off during the month.
SOLARSAT™: October new construction still firm (up >20% y/y)
One of the constants we have found in utility scale solar development is that ALL projects experience delays
SOLARSAT™: If developers are going to slow down, they haven’t yet (September new construction up 25% y/y)
More than 2 GWac of projects were started in September, down from 3 GWac in June / July, but still up 25% from a year ago.
New construction hits 30 GWac 2024E (up 20-25% y/y); tracker demand more modest +10-15% y/y; Orders flat
In this note we are updating our LS-1 Utility Solar Model and LS-2 Solar Database.
SOLARSAT™: Utility Solar full steam ahead; Q3 tracking +20% y/y; Panel installs up 2x; ARRY slow
Assuming the industry continues to click, the U.S. will soon be installing 30-40 GWac (40-50 GWdc) of utility solar per year
Orderbook study; 95 GWac (~600 projects) getting close to construction; Top 10 developers will make 60% of orders; NXT slight winner
roughly 95 GWac of U.S. projects have recently cleared key regulatory hurdles and are now in late stage project development.
SOLARSAT™: July hitting on all cylinders
Broadly speaking, activity across the board was robust in July, particularly for new construction which was almost double last year.
July slide deck takeaways
Panel supply flows are great compared to 2022
SOLARSAT™: June BIG month for new construction starts
roughly 2.5 GWac (30 GW annually) of new solar was started in June, suggesting that tracker demand can continue to grow despite mediocre new construction in early 2023
