Why It Matters: Results and comments out of earnings season will shape the renewables market over the next few months.
TOP LIUM SOLAR DATA TRENDS
Q1’21 resi-solar installations grew slightly
Company Color: NOVA and ENPH reported flat and +9% activity growth, respectively, with the latter outperformance likely driven by market share gains in Q1 (our data shows ENPH share increased by 300 bps during Q1).
In Q2’21, we are anticipating resi-installations to grow 10-15%
Company Color: ENPH was most disappointing, guiding to only 3% growth this quarter. While Q2 data is obviously not in yet, we will be watching ENPH filings for potential share losses (SEDG, Delta?) to explain the miss – contrary to our recent note expressing optimism for further gains. NOVA activity guidance was much more robust, implying 10-20% growth in new customers in Q2.
California NEM proposal has a better chance of passing than companies appreciate
Company Color: Unsurprisingly, the residential solar companies reporting this week dismissed the idea that the incentive structure in California could change materially. According to NOVA, customer acceleration in anticipation of a rule change (if any) would not be until early next year at best.
Utility solar backlog is growing rapidly.
Company Color: FSLR backlog grew by the largest ever (by far) to hit 14 GW at the end of Q1 (vs 11-12 GW over the last 6 quarters). Most of these new bookings were for 2022 and 2023 projects, years that we think the market is significantly under appreciating (see these notes). Separately, NEE announced they will add 3.8 GW of utility solar over the next 4 years (30-40% annual growth) compared to only 2.6 GW currently.