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Executive Summary
LAUNCHING SATELLITE DATA… The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), expected to be signed into law later this week, will drastically change the solar landscape in the U.S. Coinciding with this revolutionary government action, we are launching a new intelligence product to track in real-time the development of every large scale U.S. solar project through satellite imagery.
…BECAUSE. As the IRA accelerates solar development, investors will need more actionable data rather than relying on anecdotes, industry groups, media, and lobbyists, as they do now. A recent example was in April 2022 when misleading surveys related to tariffs exaggerated fear and misallocated investor capital – alternatively tracking data with satellite imagery would have painted a very different (less draconian) and more accurate picture of what was actually happening on the ground. As utility scale solar enters the next boom cycle, driven by the passing of the IRA, we are introducing this alternative for solar investors and corporate managements.
NEW WAY TO TRACK SOLAR DATA. As an alternative to anecdotes, imperfect surveys, and guesswork, we have created a tool called Lium solarSAT™ to better inform the market with real-time solar satellite monitoring. With this product, investors and corporate management can monitor the status of all U.S. large scale solar projects, including the day each project broke ground (firstDirt™), timing of panel deliveries, and final completions.
HOW IT WORKS
- Satellites trained on ~350 potential U.S. solar projects
- Daily changes monitored to track ground breaking (firstDIRT™), panel delivery, and installation
- Data aggregated into various datasets and monthly summary products
WHO USES IT
- Buyside Investors – Leading indicator for tracker / panel installations; Solar supply / demand; Market share assessments
- Private Equity – Independent company benchmarking; Geomarket analysis; Project specific timing & details
- Corporate Management – Customer tracking; Competitor analysis
RECENT TRENDS IN SATELLITE DATA
- firstDIRT™ Much Better Than Feared…. As part of our solarSAT™ product, we have built specific capabilities to track exactly when each project begins construction or ‘turns dirt, which we call FirstDIRT™. Based on this data, new activity has been much stronger than generally thought among the industry. In fact, as shown in the graph on slide 16, 2Q was the second highest quarter for new project starts at almost 4 GWac.
- …But Panel Installations Still Dragging. Tracking actual panel deliveries, our satellite data is consistent with anecdotes and panel import suggesting lower installation activity. In our data, roughly 30% fewer panels were installed versus a year ago
- July Projects Under Construction > 19 GWac. According to our data, we count 19-20 GWac of projects that are currently under construction at the end of July, up 25% from a year ago. Of this, 10 GW has yet to receive any panels
AVAILABLE DATA:
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