One of the constants we have found in utility scale solar development is that ALL projects experience delays
Halfway through October, U.S. residential solar permits continue to trend lower.
SOLARSAT™: If developers are going to slow down, they haven’t yet (September new construction up 25% y/y)
More than 2 GWac of projects were started in September, down from 3 GWac in June / July, but still up 25% from a year ago.
In this note we are updating our U.S. residential solar installations (RS-3) after uploading the latest round of permits and catching up with our contacts.
New construction hits 30 GWac 2024E (up 20-25% y/y); tracker demand more modest +10-15% y/y; Orders flat
In this note we are updating our LS-1 Utility Solar Model and LS-2 Solar Database.
Closing up August data (here), the month ended down 20% y/y for residential solar permits.
Assuming the industry continues to click, the U.S. will soon be installing 30-40 GWac (40-50 GWdc) of utility solar per year
Orderbook study; 95 GWac (~600 projects) getting close to construction; Top 10 developers will make 60% of orders; NXT slight winner
roughly 95 GWac of U.S. projects have recently cleared key regulatory hurdles and are now in late stage project development.
For August, residential solar permits are landing down 18% y/y.
California interconnection application data was finally released following the NEM 3.0 switch, confirming a >60% y/y drop in applications in Q2.