SOLARSAT™: Huge August for new construction starts (3Q tracking +20% y/y)
After a disappointing July, new construction starts have seen a huge bounce in August. In fact, almost 4 GWac of projects kicked off during August, the best month of activity for U.S. utility solar so far. For 2024E full year, new construction starts are very much on track to hit our original projection of 15-20% y/y. Meanwhile, tracker demand has not yet caught up to new construction starts and remains on track for flat 2024E.
Deeper Dive To Understand Project Delays
As a broad takeaway, delays in project developments are slightly more elevated now, but NOT significantly different than other historical periods.
Pipeline update (approvals get support after 3 down qtrs); TX strong as ever; CAISO/PJM terrible
In this update, we have processed the new interconnection approvals that have been executed over the last three months.
SOLARSAT™: July takes a breather (down 15% from Q2 average)
After a big June and Q2, new utility solar construction took a breather in July posting only ~2.5 GWac compared to ~3 GWac per month since April.
New activity humming; Pipeline growing; FLNC/TSLA share gains; Raising our battery storage projections
In this note, we are updating our large scale battery storage data (ES-1, ES-3, ES-3.1, ES-3.2) after processing 2Q new construction starts, interconnections, and market share.
ENPH volumes up, but broader market still languishing
We are revising down our 2024E projection to -25%, the first notable revision since we published -18% in September 2023.
Updating Q2 model / database (2024E unchanged); Tracker backlog @ 9 GWac; Texas grid 10% solar this summer
In this note, we are updating our utility solar database and pipeline.
SOLARSAT™: Record Q2 new construction starts (9.3 GWac); Top 30 finally ramping; Tracker installs flat y/y
During the month, another 16 projects have kicked off, shrugging off potential AD/CVD tariffs and contrary to the solar construction delay narrative.
Expected rebound NOT materializing; May permits still down 35% y/y (Cali down 60%)
The much anticipated rebound in residential solar activity is not yet happening, according to our recent permit data.
SOLARSAT™: Another 18 big projects (3 GWac) kicked off in May; Trackers on pace for flattish y/y; SEIA estimates way too low
Despite SEIA claims of a slowdown, persistent delay anecdotes, and tariff fears, actual new solar construction has remained firm.
