Lowering 2024E tracker forecast (now +0-5%); New construction starts on schedule
After seeing the pace of 1Q starts, collecting new permits / interconnections agreements, and reassessing our developer forecast, we are maintaining our new construction forecast at 15-20% in 2024E.
SOLARSAT™: Seasonal uptick continues w/ March new construction @ 2.4 GWac (+15% y/y); Mostly Nextera, others flat; Tracker installations disappoint
Generally speaking, the seasonal uptick is happening with March noticeably higher for both new construction starts and tracker installations.
March permits up (modestly)…installations still have leg down
In this note, we have seen enough permit data to make a call on on March while also updating our full year residential solar permit and installations forecasts (RS-3).
Late Stage Pipeline Update – up again, but growth slowing (only ~10 GWac contracts signed last 3 months vs 60 GWac in 2023)
Broadly speaking, the utility scale solar pipeline continued to grow in Q1’24, hitting 112 GWac of projects that are considered to be in late stage development.
SOLARSAT™: February new construction bounce
Although more than a few companies continue to stress widespread delays, we have not yet seen it in real-time construction data.
Permits slow start to the year (despite anecdotes of better sales)
Although some companies are seeing sales improve, residential solar permits remain dismal.
25 developers that will build 70% of capacity; FLNC has 5 of them; AES big jump this year; New developer / integrator matrix
In this note, we break out our battery storage data, highlighting the 25 largest developers that will make up 70% of the utility-scale market in 2024.
SOLARSAT™: Modest start to 2024
In this note we summarize U.S. utility solar activity from January
U.S. Manufacturing Study (production is ramping); +20 GWdc realistic by June 50-60 GWdc by 2025
In this study we have updated our U.S. solar module manufacturing data, focusing on facilities that are progressing through key milestones such as permit approval, facility construction, equipment installation, hiring, and final production.
Final 2023 interconnections (17.6 GWac – up 60% y/y); 2024 will surge again
This week, the EIA released final December and 2023 interconnection data, highlighting 5.6 GWac turned on in December alone.