Disappointing 2022 (only 5GW installed vs 7-9GW forecast)… but project pipeline surges again
Disappointing near term installations (driven by supply chain / equipment / labor shortages), with only 5 GW installed in 2022 compared our original forecast of 7-9 GW.
SOLARSAT™: November new construction starts drop sharply (after six very strong months); Panel installations on uptrend
Q4 construction starts are now likely to land in the range of 2.9-3.5 GWac, down substantially from both Q3 and Q2.
November permits down 10% m/m (seasonal decline); Still tracking up >20% y/y
Q4 residential solar permits are on track to decline by 5-10% sequentially and up 20-25% y/y.
Module import data jumps 17% Oct / Nov
Monthly module imports have increased to almost 3 GWdc in October and November, up 17% from the 3Q average
Module import data jumps 17% Oct / Nov
17% jump in solar imports over the last 60 days (despite UFLPA noise), consistent with firm U.S. installations for both utility scale solar and residential solar
Monthly permit update – Q4 continues to be strong (RUN, SPWR, NOVA, ENPH, SEDG)
After surprisingly strong Q3 permits and upbeat earnings, residential solar permits continue to be robust into Q4.
Predictions for next year (panel deliveries jump +60%); Tracker growth modest at +10-15%; Market share GmChge (+) ARRY (=) Nextrker (-)
Stellar growth in new solar construction and tracker demand over the last seven months (DESPITE AD/CVD AND UFLPA NOISE) is setting up for an unprecedented surge in panel deliveries and online installations in 2023E.
SOLARSAT™: Panel deliveries accelerating (18 GW p.a. in Oct); Big queue waiting final commish (mostly TX); FirstDIRT™ firm through Oct
In this note, we summarize the utility solar trends identified while going through the latest October solarSAT™ data. Most noticeable has been the…
Takeaways From RE+ Anaheim Conference
As an alternative to anecdotes, imperfect surveys, and guesswork, we have created a tool called Lium solarSAT™ to better inform the market with real-time solar satellite monitoring. With this product, investors and corporate management can monitor the status of all U.S. large scale solar projects, including the day each project broke ground (firstDIRT™), timing of panel deliveries, and final completions. In this report, see findings as we update our data for August satellite imagery.
Takeaways From RE+ Anaheim Conference
In this residential solar note, we are highlighting takeaways from our time at RE+ in Anaheim, CA.