SOLARSAT™: Utility solar activity slow through February (probably seasonal, but worth watching)
Utility scale solar construction was pretty uneventful through February, with firstDIRT (new construction) and panel installations both down from January and lower than the Q4’2022 average.
Feb solar module imports remain firm
Despite noise around detentions, February PV module imports have remained firm.
Takeaways from Intersolar Conference; U.S. module manufacturing could be 40 GW+; NEM surge underway
We now think that boom could be in the range of 40 GWdc by 2025E, much higher than the 25-30 GWdc that has been announced / in the public domain and only 8 GWdc that exists now.
January import data echos solarSAT views (big jump in module supply)
Recent surge in module availability is putting the U.S. back on track to deliver record solar generation this year
SOLARSAT™: Big start to 2023 (panels installed jump another 25%); More solar likely in H1’23E than 2022 total; New construction still hibernating
surprising jump in panel deliveries over the last 30 days, with January installations 25% higher than the previous record in mid-2021.
Takeaways from EIA data this week (2.5 GW online – missing 10GW under construction); Queues up 30% since IRA; NextEra & Nextracker data
With December published, the final tally for U.S. utility solar turned online in 2022 was roughly 11 GWac, down ~20% from 2021.
Nextracker (NXT) Data Trends
Using our satellite imagery, we counted over 21 GWac of utility scale projects that started construction last year, up over 20% from the prior year.
Dec / Jan module imports up 65% y/y; LONGi imports still dismal
Solar module imports for the month of December, as aggregated by Lium, have increased 65% as compared to 2021
SOLARSAT™: Another big month for panel installations; NextEra primary driver; New construction at seasonal low
On the new construction side (leading indicator to tracker installs), activity has been slower than usual with only ~800 MWac per month started in Nov / Dec.
SOLARSAT™: November new construction starts drop sharply (after six very strong months); Panel installations on uptrend
Q4 construction starts are now likely to land in the range of 2.9-3.5 GWac, down substantially from both Q3 and Q2.