SOLARSAT™: Clear inflection (Q1 new starts will jump 20%+ Y/Y); 2025 forecast likely too low
After running February satellite data… we are seeing a clear inflection in the level of new construction starts for utility-scale solar…
Pipeline firm to start 2025 (another 15 GWac approved); PJM huge driver….others ho-hum
Below we list takeaways after updating our utility scale solar database (LS-2 and PLUS-201).
SOLARSAT™: Construction off to quick start (Jan firstDIRT ~3 GWac)
During January, we identified… utility-scale solar projects that kicked off site work during the month… This compares to the last three Januarys that averaged… and during a seasonally slow time of year…
2025E update; Key themes (Nextera moderating, 12 GWac waiting for trackers, interconnection approvals rebound)
In this note we are updating our LS-1, LS-2, and PLUS-201 data sheets and forecasts… Broadly speaking, we are still anticipating growth this year…
SOLARSAT™: Active December for site prep; PJM signs of life; Trackers land down 7% full year; Construction delays update
Below see key takeaways after going through our utility-scale solar satellite data for the month of December.
SOLARSAT™: Tracker activity very slow; Companies pulling 2025 installs forward; New construction chugging along
Below see key takeaways after going through our utility-scale solar satellite data for the month of November.
Interconnection approvals rebound…driven by big projects in desert states…benefitting from wave of queue requests 3-5 years ago
Following a slow start to 2024, interconnection approvals have rebounded since June.
SOLARSAT™: Oct solar construction of soft side (<2GW); 85% new activity in Trump states; Trackers on pace for down 5-10% y/y
Little less than 2 GWac of new projects kicked off during October
Modest summer rebound; October noticeably lower; 2025E projection @ +5%
With more than half of October now in, we are updating our Q4 and 2025E residential solar projections (RS-3).
Model update…2024 trackers DOWN 5-10% (new construction +15%); 2025E signs of +10-20%
In this note, we are updating our 2024/2025 Utility Scale Solar Model (LS-1) after putting in actuals through September and refreshing our project / developer level forecast.