SOLARSAT™: Seasonal uptick continues w/ March new construction @ 2.4 GWac (+15% y/y); Mostly Nextera, others flat; Tracker installations disappoint
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Generally speaking, the seasonal uptick is happening with March noticeably higher for both new construction starts and tracker installations.
March permits up (modestly)…installations still have leg down
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In this note, we have seen enough permit data to make a call on on March while also updating our full year residential solar permit and installations forecasts (RS-3).
Late Stage Pipeline Update – up again, but growth slowing (only ~10 GWac contracts signed last 3 months vs 60 GWac in 2023)
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Broadly speaking, the utility scale solar pipeline continued to grow in Q1’24, hitting 112 GWac of projects that are considered to be in late stage development.
SOLARSAT™: February new construction bounce
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Although more than a few companies continue to stress widespread delays, we have not yet seen it in real-time construction data.
Permits slow start to the year (despite anecdotes of better sales)
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Although some companies are seeing sales improve, residential solar permits remain dismal.
SOLARSAT™: Modest start to 2024
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In this note we summarize U.S. utility solar activity from January
U.S. Manufacturing Study (production is ramping); +20 GWdc realistic by June 50-60 GWdc by 2025
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In this study we have updated our U.S. solar module manufacturing data, focusing on facilities that are progressing through key milestones such as permit approval, facility construction, equipment installation, hiring, and final production.
Final 2023 interconnections (17.6 GWac – up 60% y/y); 2024 will surge again
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This week, the EIA released final December and 2023 interconnection data, highlighting 5.6 GWac turned on in December alone.
Hard landing in December
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For 2023A in total, permits declined by 3% as a huge start to the year was offset by the dismal second half.
SOLARSAT™: Activity still chugging along nicely
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Generally speaking, activity has continued to chug along in recent months despite fears from some public companies that developers are delaying work (ie ARRY, MTZ).