SOLARSAT™: Record Q2 new construction starts (9.3 GWac); Top 30 finally ramping; Tracker installs flat y/y
During the month, another 16 projects have kicked off, shrugging off potential AD/CVD tariffs and contrary to the solar construction delay narrative.
SOLARSAT™: Another 18 big projects (3 GWac) kicked off in May; Trackers on pace for flattish y/y; SEIA estimates way too low
Despite SEIA claims of a slowdown, persistent delay anecdotes, and tariff fears, actual new solar construction has remained firm.
Pipeline update – new approvals down again; Late stage queue flat at 112 GWac
In this note, we are updating our utility solar database and pipeline.
SOLARSAT™: New construction – no problem; Nextera overweight; Trackers flat; Shoals losing share
U.S. utility-scale solar market is having no problem starting projects.
AD/CVD pockets of risk, but mostly exaggerated
In this note, we summarize our recent data collected surrounding U.S. solar module imports and solar demand as it relates to AD/CVD risk.
Lowering 2024E tracker forecast (now +0-5%); New construction starts on schedule
After seeing the pace of 1Q starts, collecting new permits / interconnections agreements, and reassessing our developer forecast, we are maintaining our new construction forecast at 15-20% in 2024E.
SOLARSAT™: Seasonal uptick continues w/ March new construction @ 2.4 GWac (+15% y/y); Mostly Nextera, others flat; Tracker installations disappoint
Generally speaking, the seasonal uptick is happening with March noticeably higher for both new construction starts and tracker installations.
Late Stage Pipeline Update – up again, but growth slowing (only ~10 GWac contracts signed last 3 months vs 60 GWac in 2023)
Broadly speaking, the utility scale solar pipeline continued to grow in Q1’24, hitting 112 GWac of projects that are considered to be in late stage development.
SOLARSAT™: February new construction bounce
Although more than a few companies continue to stress widespread delays, we have not yet seen it in real-time construction data.
SOLARSAT™: Modest start to 2024
In this note we summarize U.S. utility solar activity from January
