SOLARSAT™: Big start to 2023 (panels installed jump another 25%); More solar likely in H1’23E than 2022 total; New construction still hibernating
surprising jump in panel deliveries over the last 30 days, with January installations 25% higher than the previous record in mid-2021.
Takeaways from EIA data this week (2.5 GW online – missing 10GW under construction); Queues up 30% since IRA; NextEra & Nextracker data
With December published, the final tally for U.S. utility solar turned online in 2022 was roughly 11 GWac, down ~20% from 2021.
Nextracker (NXT) Data Trends
Using our satellite imagery, we counted over 21 GWac of utility scale projects that started construction last year, up over 20% from the prior year.
Dec / Jan module imports up 65% y/y; LONGi imports still dismal
Solar module imports for the month of December, as aggregated by Lium, have increased 65% as compared to 2021
SOLARSAT™: Another big month for panel installations; NextEra primary driver; New construction at seasonal low
On the new construction side (leading indicator to tracker installs), activity has been slower than usual with only ~800 MWac per month started in Nov / Dec.
SOLARSAT™: November new construction starts drop sharply (after six very strong months); Panel installations on uptrend
Q4 construction starts are now likely to land in the range of 2.9-3.5 GWac, down substantially from both Q3 and Q2.
Module import data jumps 17% Oct / Nov
17% jump in solar imports over the last 60 days (despite UFLPA noise), consistent with firm U.S. installations for both utility scale solar and residential solar
Predictions for next year (panel deliveries jump +60%); Tracker growth modest at +10-15%; Market share GmChge (+) ARRY (=) Nextrker (-)
Stellar growth in new solar construction and tracker demand over the last seven months (DESPITE AD/CVD AND UFLPA NOISE) is setting up for an unprecedented surge in panel deliveries and online installations in 2023E.
SOLARSAT™: Panel deliveries accelerating (18 GW p.a. in Oct); Big queue waiting final commish (mostly TX); FirstDIRT™ firm through Oct
In this note, we summarize the utility solar trends identified while going through the latest October solarSAT™ data. Most noticeable has been the…
Takeaways From RE+ Anaheim Conference
As an alternative to anecdotes, imperfect surveys, and guesswork, we have created a tool called Lium solarSAT™ to better inform the market with real-time solar satellite monitoring. With this product, investors and corporate management can monitor the status of all U.S. large scale solar projects, including the day each project broke ground (firstDIRT™), timing of panel deliveries, and final completions. In this report, see findings as we update our data for August satellite imagery.