While new construction starts and tracker activity is progressing as expected in Q2, the conversion to panel installation is concerning.
The U.S. imported roughly double the volume of solar modules in April and early May compared to a year ago.
After a relatively slow winter, April new construction starts have picked back up to ~25 GWac annually.
In total, we identified around 1.6 GWac of new projects kicked off during the month
After a strong Q1, leading edge anecdotes at the Austin RE+ conference suggest that new inbounds are coming to a halt in California.
March imports continue to be strong; Cambodia (BYD, New East) big growth; Avoid EIA Monthly Shipments Report (it is wrong)
India, South Korea, and Cambodia imports have been particularly notable, collectively up 400% compared to a year ago.
For 2023E, we are still expecting around 20 GWac to be interconnected, almost double that of 2022.
Utility scale solar construction was pretty uneventful through February, with firstDIRT (new construction) and panel installations both down from January and lower than the Q4’2022 average.
Despite noise around detentions, February PV module imports have remained firm.
We now think that boom could be in the range of 40 GWdc by 2025E, much higher than the 25-30 GWdc that has been announced / in the public domain and only 8 GWdc that exists now.