SOLARSAT™: If developers are going to slow down, they haven’t yet (September new construction up 25% y/y)
More than 2 GWac of projects were started in September, down from 3 GWac in June / July, but still up 25% from a year ago.
Hard landing in September….updating 2024 estimates
In this note we are updating our U.S. residential solar installations (RS-3) after uploading the latest round of permits and catching up with our contacts.
New construction hits 30 GWac 2024E (up 20-25% y/y); tracker demand more modest +10-15% y/y; Orders flat
In this note we are updating our LS-1 Utility Solar Model and LS-2 Solar Database.
No sign of a rebound
Closing up August data (here), the month ended down 20% y/y for residential solar permits.
SOLARSAT™: Utility Solar full steam ahead; Q3 tracking +20% y/y; Panel installs up 2x; ARRY slow
Assuming the industry continues to click, the U.S. will soon be installing 30-40 GWac (40-50 GWdc) of utility solar per year
Orderbook study; 95 GWac (~600 projects) getting close to construction; Top 10 developers will make 60% of orders; NXT slight winner
roughly 95 GWac of U.S. projects have recently cleared key regulatory hurdles and are now in late stage project development.
August still trending lower
For August, residential solar permits are landing down 18% y/y.
First look at California interconnection applications (Q2 finally released this week)
California interconnection application data was finally released following the NEM 3.0 switch, confirming a >60% y/y drop in applications in Q2.
SOLARSAT™: July hitting on all cylinders
Broadly speaking, activity across the board was robust in July, particularly for new construction which was almost double last year.
July not bouncing back; Estimates still too high
Last weeks permit activity was another disappointing datapoint, with residential solar permits down 18% y/y.
