ENPH volumes up, but broader market still languishing
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We are revising down our 2024E projection to -25%, the first notable revision since we published -18% in September 2023.
Expected rebound NOT materializing; May permits still down 35% y/y (Cali down 60%)
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The much anticipated rebound in residential solar activity is not yet happening, according to our recent permit data.
Heads up on 20% decline for Q1 installations (and muted bounce for Q2)
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While leading edge indicators have picked up (or at least hit bottom), installations have not and continue to move significantly lower.
March permits up (modestly)…installations still have leg down
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In this note, we have seen enough permit data to make a call on on March while also updating our full year residential solar permit and installations forecasts (RS-3).
Permits slow start to the year (despite anecdotes of better sales)
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Although some companies are seeing sales improve, residential solar permits remain dismal.
Hard landing in December
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For 2023A in total, permits declined by 3% as a huge start to the year was offset by the dismal second half.
October permits still getting worse
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Halfway through October, U.S. residential solar permits continue to trend lower.
Hard landing in September….updating 2024 estimates
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In this note we are updating our U.S. residential solar installations (RS-3) after uploading the latest round of permits and catching up with our contacts.
No sign of a rebound
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Closing up August data (here), the month ended down 20% y/y for residential solar permits.
August still trending lower
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For August, residential solar permits are landing down 18% y/y.