Modest summer rebound; October noticeably lower; 2025E projection @ +5%
With more than half of October now in, we are updating our Q4 and 2025E residential solar projections (RS-3).
ENPH volumes up, but broader market still languishing
We are revising down our 2024E projection to -25%, the first notable revision since we published -18% in September 2023.
Expected rebound NOT materializing; May permits still down 35% y/y (Cali down 60%)
The much anticipated rebound in residential solar activity is not yet happening, according to our recent permit data.
Heads up on 20% decline for Q1 installations (and muted bounce for Q2)
While leading edge indicators have picked up (or at least hit bottom), installations have not and continue to move significantly lower.
March permits up (modestly)…installations still have leg down
In this note, we have seen enough permit data to make a call on on March while also updating our full year residential solar permit and installations forecasts (RS-3).
Permits slow start to the year (despite anecdotes of better sales)
Although some companies are seeing sales improve, residential solar permits remain dismal.
Hard landing in December
For 2023A in total, permits declined by 3% as a huge start to the year was offset by the dismal second half.
October permits still getting worse
Halfway through October, U.S. residential solar permits continue to trend lower.
Hard landing in September….updating 2024 estimates
In this note we are updating our U.S. residential solar installations (RS-3) after uploading the latest round of permits and catching up with our contacts.
No sign of a rebound
Closing up August data (here), the month ended down 20% y/y for residential solar permits.
