No sign of a rebound
Closing up August data (here), the month ended down 20% y/y for residential solar permits.
SOLARSAT™: Utility Solar full steam ahead; Q3 tracking +20% y/y; Panel installs up 2x; ARRY slow
Assuming the industry continues to click, the U.S. will soon be installing 30-40 GWac (40-50 GWdc) of utility solar per year
Orderbook study; 95 GWac (~600 projects) getting close to construction; Top 10 developers will make 60% of orders; NXT slight winner
roughly 95 GWac of U.S. projects have recently cleared key regulatory hurdles and are now in late stage project development.
August still trending lower
For August, residential solar permits are landing down 18% y/y.
First look at California interconnection applications (Q2 finally released this week)
California interconnection application data was finally released following the NEM 3.0 switch, confirming a >60% y/y drop in applications in Q2.
SOLARSAT™: July hitting on all cylinders
Broadly speaking, activity across the board was robust in July, particularly for new construction which was almost double last year.
July not bouncing back; Estimates still too high
Last weeks permit activity was another disappointing datapoint, with residential solar permits down 18% y/y.
July slide deck takeaways
Panel supply flows are great compared to 2022
Terrible June followed by even slower July 4 last week
June rooftop permits declined compared to May for the first time since 2020 and landed down 15% y/y. July has started off even worse, with the July 4 week down 20% compared to the same week a year ago.
SOLARSAT™: June BIG month for new construction starts
roughly 2.5 GWac (30 GW annually) of new solar was started in June, suggesting that tracker demand can continue to grow despite mediocre new construction in early 2023
